> Illustrative synthetic data only. No real venue, survey or Google Maps content. Not a certified safety plan and not suitable for operational use.

# Illustrative synthetic arrival-route example

**CrowdRoute™ by CrowdSafe Group™**
**Crowd route model and operational assessment**  
Document: CR-SYNTHETIC-REPORT · Revision P01 · Illustrative only; not for operational use  
Project: CR-SYNTHETIC-EXAMPLE · Client: Synthetic example only  
Generated: fixed synthetic example basis, 2026-10-10; not an event date
Classification: Public synthetic example

> Decision status: **NOT READY — INPUT BLOCKERS**

## 1. Decision answer

The model is not ready for decision use because 9 critical input or reconciliation issue(s) remain.

The model supports this decision question: **How do assumed arrival profiles, route shares and closure of the north branch change indicative segment loading?**

It does not replace venue inspection, licensed design, statutory approval, emergency command judgment, accessibility review, or event-day monitoring. Its conclusions apply only to the stated geometry, attendance, time profile, route-choice, management and degradation assumptions.

## 2. Executive findings

| Scenario | Basis | Attendance | Allocated | Unallocated | Status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SCN-01 | Expected / natural | 10,000 | 10,000 | 0 | PASS |
| SCN-02 | Buffered / natural | 10,800 | 10,800 | 0 | PASS |
| SCN-03 | Buffered / managed | 10,800 | 10,800 | 0 | PASS |
| SCN-04 | Capacity stress / managed | 10,800 | 10,800 | 0 | PASS |
| SCN-05 | Degraded / rerouted | 10,800 | 10,800 | 0 | CAUTION |

### Exceptions and bottlenecks

| Scenario | Segment | Name | Max util. | Max moving density | Peak | Status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SCN-05 | SEG-05 | South split to Gate South | 94.9% | 0.393 | T+45m | CAUTION |

No detected shared spatial corridor exceeds the stated utilisation and moving-density criteria in the tested scenarios.

## 3. Project basis and boundary

- Event: Fictional arrival scenario; Fictional schematic; no real venue; date not set; reference Gate opening (T0).
- Configuration: Main event configuration — illustrative only.
- Jurisdiction: None; synthetic example.
- Model boundary: Transport set-down and pedestrian approaches through the final route network to Gate North and Gate South..
- Explicit exclusions: Internal concourse, seating bowl, emergency evacuation, vehicle traffic modeling and microscopic simulation.
- Geometry status: Synthetic schematic only; no field measurements or Google walking geometry.
- Author / checker / approver: Synthetic example / No professional review performed / No operational approval.
- Decision owner: Not applicable to a real event; assurance class A.

## 4. Demand and time profiles

| Group | Expected | Inventory | Natural profile | Managed profile | Accessibility | Evidence | Confidence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| GRP-01 | 8,500 | 9,000 | 4.0 / 8.0 / 13.0 / 19.0 / 22.0 / 17.0 / 11.0 / 6.0 | 6.0 / 10.0 / 15.0 / 18.0 / 18.0 / 15.0 / 11.0 / 7.0 | Provide step-free signed alternative and mobility-support plan | EVD-01 | Low |
| GRP-02 | 1,500 | 1,800 | 8.0 / 14.0 / 18.0 / 20.0 / 17.0 / 12.0 / 7.0 / 4.0 | 10.0 / 16.0 / 19.0 / 18.0 / 15.0 / 11.0 / 7.0 / 4.0 | Individual support requests to be reconciled | EVD-01 | Low |

The buffered scenarios apply 10.0%. The capacity-stress scenario distributes 12,000 people across groups in proportion to expected demand. Profiles and route shares are independently required to reconcile to 100%.

## 5. Route network

### Nodes

| Node | Name | Type | Google Maps position | Mode | Capacity | Accessible | Constraints | Evidence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| N-01 | Transit hub | Origin | Open | Rail / bus | 4,500 | Yes | Pulse arrivals after service discharge | EVD-02 |
| N-02 | West plaza | Merge | Open | Pedestrian | 0 | Yes | Shared public realm | EVD-02 |
| N-03 | North split | Split | Open | Pedestrian | 0 | Yes | Decision point requires clear information | EVD-03 |
| N-04 | South split | Split | Open | Pedestrian | 0 | Yes | Crossing control required | EVD-03 |
| G-N | Gate North | Gate destination | Open | Pedestrian | 6,500 | Yes | Search rate is outside route model boundary | EVD-04 |
| G-S | Gate South | Gate destination | Open | Pedestrian | 6,500 | Yes | Search rate is outside route model boundary | EVD-04 |

### Segments

| Segment | From → to | Length m | Geometry source | Usable width m | Speed m/s | Specific flow p/m/min | Base / degraded factor | Degraded state | Evidence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SEG-01 | N-01 → N-02 | 280.0 | Not synchronized | 6.00 | 1.10 | 60.0 | 0.80 / 0.75 | Open | EVD-02 |
| SEG-02 | N-02 → N-03 | 190.0 | Not synchronized | 4.20 | 1.05 | 60.0 | 0.75 / 0.65 | Closed | EVD-03 |
| SEG-03 | N-02 → N-04 | 240.0 | Not synchronized | 5.00 | 1.05 | 60.0 | 0.75 / 0.70 | Open | EVD-03 |
| SEG-04 | N-03 → G-N | 150.0 | Not synchronized | 5.00 | 1.00 | 60.0 | 0.75 / 0.70 | Open | EVD-04 |
| SEG-05 | N-04 → G-S | 170.0 | Not synchronized | 5.50 | 1.00 | 60.0 | 0.75 / 0.70 | Open | EVD-04 |

Google route distances and durations are not retained in this report. Google-supplied node coordinates are temporary content; delete any exported Google coordinates within 30 days of their retrieval and refresh them from the retained Place IDs. Gate access is operator-declared and must be verified for the event.

### Defined routes

| Route | Origin → destination | Segment chain | Accessible | Compliance | Managed intervention | Evidence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| RTE-N | N-01 → G-N | SEG-01 → SEG-02 → SEG-04 | Yes | 75% | Pre-event message, plaza variable sign and steward instruction | EVD-05 |
| RTE-S | N-01 → G-S | SEG-01 → SEG-03 → SEG-05 | Yes | 80% | Ticket message, transit-hub sign and steward instruction | EVD-05 |

The on-screen map is a conceptual network schematic unless the geometry status explicitly identifies a controlled survey or GIS source. Node positions are not a substitute for controlled geometry.

## 6. Method and equations

For each group, time bin and route:

`Route demand = scenario attendance × time-profile share × route share`.

For each segment, concurrent route uses are aggregated by time bin. CrowdRoute also detects spatially overlapping Google paths from different transport origins and evaluates the combined flow on each shared corridor. To avoid inventing additional width, a detected corridor uses the most conservative effective capacity and moving-density denominator among its source segment records. In the degraded scenario, closure of any source path closes every modeled route occupying that physical shared corridor before demand is redistributed.

The nominal segment capacity is:

`min(usable width × specific flow, stated downstream capacity where provided) × base factor × degraded factor`.

The model calculates flow as people per time step divided by time-step minutes, utilisation as flow divided by effective capacity, and indicative moving density as:

`people/min ÷ (60 × speed m/s × usable width m)`.

Route traversal time sums segment length / walking speed plus entered control delay. These are deterministic screening calculations, not microscopic simulation. Results are rounded for display only; unrounded values drive status checks.

Adopted checks: normal utilisation ≤ 85%; stress/failure utilisation > 100%; moving density limit 1.50 people/m²; time step 15 minutes.

## 7. Scenario results

### SCN-01 — Expected / natural

Expected attendance, unaltered time profile and observed or forecast natural route choice.

| Route | Total | Peak interval | Peak hour | Travel min | Bottleneck | Max util. | Max density | Status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| RTE-N | 5,475 | 1,186 @ T+1h | 3,872 | 10.6 | SEG-01 | 49.2% | 0.358 | PASS |
| RTE-S | 4,525 | 939 @ T+1h | 3,168 | 12.0 | SEG-01 | 49.2% | 0.358 | PASS |

| Segment | Peak interval | Peak flow/min | Capacity/min | Max util. | Max density | Routes | State |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SEG-01 | 2,125 @ T+1h | 141.7 | 288.0 | 49.2% | 0.358 | RTE-N, RTE-S | PASS |
| SEG-02 | 1,186 @ T+1h | 79.1 | 189.0 | 41.8% | 0.299 | RTE-N | PASS |
| SEG-03 | 939 @ T+1h | 62.6 | 225.0 | 27.8% | 0.199 | RTE-S | PASS |
| SEG-04 | 1,186 @ T+1h | 79.1 | 180.0 | 43.9% | 0.264 | RTE-N | PASS |
| SEG-05 | 939 @ T+1h | 62.6 | 195.0 | 32.1% | 0.190 | RTE-S | PASS |

No multi-origin shared spatial corridor was detected in this scenario.

### SCN-02 — Buffered / natural

Expected attendance plus the project buffer, capped by configured capacity and known group inventory; incremental demand is allocated in proportion to expected group demand with no benefit from route management.

| Route | Total | Peak interval | Peak hour | Travel min | Bottleneck | Max util. | Max density | Status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| RTE-N | 5,850 | 1,265 @ T+1h | 4,136 | 10.6 | SEG-01 | 52.9% | 0.385 | PASS |
| RTE-S | 4,950 | 1,022 @ T+1h | 3,461 | 12.0 | SEG-01 | 52.9% | 0.385 | PASS |

| Segment | Peak interval | Peak flow/min | Capacity/min | Max util. | Max density | Routes | State |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SEG-01 | 2,286 @ T+1h | 152.4 | 288.0 | 52.9% | 0.385 | RTE-N, RTE-S | PASS |
| SEG-02 | 1,265 @ T+1h | 84.3 | 189.0 | 44.6% | 0.319 | RTE-N | PASS |
| SEG-03 | 1,022 @ T+1h | 68.1 | 225.0 | 30.3% | 0.216 | RTE-S | PASS |
| SEG-04 | 1,265 @ T+1h | 84.3 | 180.0 | 46.8% | 0.281 | RTE-N | PASS |
| SEG-05 | 1,022 @ T+1h | 68.1 | 195.0 | 34.9% | 0.206 | RTE-S | PASS |

No multi-origin shared spatial corridor was detected in this scenario.

### SCN-03 — Buffered / managed

Inventory-capped buffered attendance with the managed time and route allocation assumptions.

| Route | Total | Peak interval | Peak hour | Travel min | Bottleneck | Max util. | Max density | Status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| RTE-N | 4,770 | 859 @ T+45m | 3,140 | 10.6 | SEG-01 | 45.0% | 0.327 | PASS |
| RTE-S | 6,030 | 1,085 @ T+45m | 3,934 | 12.0 | SEG-01 | 45.0% | 0.327 | PASS |

| Segment | Peak interval | Peak flow/min | Capacity/min | Max util. | Max density | Routes | State |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SEG-01 | 1,944 @ T+45m | 129.6 | 288.0 | 45.0% | 0.327 | RTE-N, RTE-S | PASS |
| SEG-02 | 859 @ T+45m | 57.2 | 189.0 | 30.3% | 0.216 | RTE-N | PASS |
| SEG-03 | 1,085 @ T+45m | 72.4 | 225.0 | 32.2% | 0.230 | RTE-S | PASS |
| SEG-04 | 859 @ T+45m | 57.2 | 180.0 | 31.8% | 0.191 | RTE-N | PASS |
| SEG-05 | 1,085 @ T+45m | 72.4 | 195.0 | 37.1% | 0.219 | RTE-S | PASS |

No multi-origin shared spatial corridor was detected in this scenario.

### SCN-04 — Capacity stress / managed

Configured capacity distributed across groups in proportion to expected demand and capped by each known group inventory.

| Route | Total | Peak interval | Peak hour | Travel min | Bottleneck | Max util. | Max density | Status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| RTE-N | 4,770 | 859 @ T+45m | 3,140 | 10.6 | SEG-01 | 45.0% | 0.327 | PASS |
| RTE-S | 6,030 | 1,085 @ T+45m | 3,934 | 12.0 | SEG-01 | 45.0% | 0.327 | PASS |

| Segment | Peak interval | Peak flow/min | Capacity/min | Max util. | Max density | Routes | State |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SEG-01 | 1,944 @ T+45m | 129.6 | 288.0 | 45.0% | 0.327 | RTE-N, RTE-S | PASS |
| SEG-02 | 859 @ T+45m | 57.2 | 189.0 | 30.3% | 0.216 | RTE-N | PASS |
| SEG-03 | 1,085 @ T+45m | 72.4 | 225.0 | 32.2% | 0.230 | RTE-S | PASS |
| SEG-04 | 859 @ T+45m | 57.2 | 180.0 | 31.8% | 0.191 | RTE-N | PASS |
| SEG-05 | 1,085 @ T+45m | 72.4 | 195.0 | 37.1% | 0.219 | RTE-S | PASS |

No multi-origin shared spatial corridor was detected in this scenario.

### SCN-05 — Degraded / rerouted

Inventory-capped buffered demand with marked physical corridors closed and remaining managed route shares re-normalized by group.

| Route | Total | Peak interval | Peak hour | Travel min | Bottleneck | Max util. | Max density | Status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| RTE-N | 0 | 0 @ T0 | 0 | 10.6 | SEG-01 | 60.0% | 0.327 | CLOSED |
| RTE-S | 10,800 | 1,944 @ T+45m | 7,074 | 12.0 | SEG-05 | 94.9% | 0.411 | CAUTION |

| Segment | Peak interval | Peak flow/min | Capacity/min | Max util. | Max density | Routes | State |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SEG-01 | 1,944 @ T+45m | 129.6 | 216.0 | 60.0% | 0.327 | RTE-S | PASS |
| SEG-02 | 0 @ T0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.000 | — | CLOSED |
| SEG-03 | 1,944 @ T+45m | 129.6 | 157.5 | 82.3% | 0.411 | RTE-S | PASS |
| SEG-04 | 0 @ T0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.000 | — | PASS |
| SEG-05 | 1,944 @ T+45m | 129.6 | 136.5 | 94.9% | 0.393 | RTE-S | CAUTION |

No multi-origin shared spatial corridor was detected in this scenario.


## 8. Degraded operation and route redistribution

In SCN-05, every route containing a segment marked “closed in degraded scenario” is removed. Remaining managed shares are re-normalized separately for each group. This is an explicit scenario assumption: it depends on the stated intervention, communications, compliance and monitoring arrangements and does not prove that people will accept the reroute.

| Route | Intervention | Compliance assumption | Degraded fallback | Confidence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| RTE-N | Pre-event message, plaza variable sign and steward instruction | 75% | Close north decision, redirect at west plaza to RTE-S | Low |
| RTE-S | Ticket message, transit-hub sign and steward instruction | 80% | Primary available route when north approach closes; meter upstream if needed | Low |

## 9. Conflicts, controls and trigger loop

| Conflict | Location | Failure mode | Indicator / threshold | Control | Owner | Fallback | Status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CF-01 | N-02 / SEG-01 | Plaza compression and backward propagation into SEG-01 | Sustained density, falling speed, inability to clear split / Density ≥ 1.2 p/m² or visible stop–start for 2 min | Hold transport release where possible; open stewarded split; meter upstream | Route Supervisor West | Divert new arrivals to signed south approach and request transport liaison | In review |

| Trigger | Location / phase | Indicator | Threshold + persistence | Source / backup | Action | Owner / authority | Fallback / de-escalation | Audit | Status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| TRG-01 | N-02 / Arrival | Density and walking speed | Density ≥ 1.2 p/m² or speed < 0.6 m/s; 2 consecutive minutes | CCTV operator with calibrated reference grid / Supervisor visual assessment and manual count | Open managed split, stop conflicting vehicle movement and meter SEG-01 | Route Supervisor West / Event Control — Crowd Lead | Escalate to transit liaison and divert new arrivals / Below threshold for 5 minutes with stable downstream acceptance | Time, source, decision, action, owner, confirmation and stand-down in event log | In review |

Each trigger is intended to operate as a closed control loop: observe → compare → decide → act → confirm → record → de-escalate or escalate. A threshold without a source, owner, authority, fallback and confirmation method is not an executable control.

## 10. Evidence and standards

| ID | Tag | Subject | Value / claim | Source | Edition | Location / method | Uncertainty | Owner | Status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| EVD-01 | ASSUMPTION | Attendance and group profile | 10,000 expected; group split as entered | Invented synthetic input; not measured or observed | Illustrative | Synthetic assumption | ±10% buffer tested; inventory not verified | Example only | Open |
| EVD-02 | ASSUMPTION | West approach geometry | Length, usable width and walking performance as entered | Invented synthetic input; not measured or observed | Illustrative | Synthetic assumption | High | Example only | Open |
| EVD-03 | ASSUMPTION | Route split geometry and closure | North/south widths and north closure scenario | Invented synthetic input; not measured or observed | Illustrative | Synthetic assumption | High | Example only | Open |
| EVD-04 | ASSUMPTION | Gate interface acceptance | Final-approach downstream capacities | Invented synthetic input; not measured or observed | Illustrative | Synthetic assumption | Medium | Example only | Open |
| EVD-05 | ASSUMPTION | Natural and managed route choice | Group route shares and compliance as entered | Invented synthetic input; not measured or observed | Illustrative | Synthetic assumption | High | Example only | Open |

| ID | Standard | Edition / clause | Jurisdiction | Applicability | Interpretation | Precedence | Status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| STD-01 | Applicable local event, fire, accessibility and public-realm requirements | Confirm current controlled editions / Open | Project jurisdiction | Authority, geometry, accessibility, emergency and operational approvals | Competent local reviewers to confirm project-specific requirements and precedence | Statutory and authority requirements prevail | Open |

Values marked ASSUMPTION, INFERENCE or RECOMMENDATION remain distinct from source facts and measurements. The applicable authority, regulator and competent reviewer decide precedence where sources conflict.

## 11. Assurance

### RAMP — assumptions requiring management and proof

| ID | Assumption | Why needed | Range | Sensitivity | Validation | Owner / deadline | Contingency | Status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| RAMP-01 | Entered usable widths and route-choice shares reflect event conditions | They directly determine segment load and status | Width −10%; route share ±15 percentage points | High at shared SEG-01 and degraded south approach | Controlled survey, obstruction schedule, observed comparable-event counts and event-day calibration | Crowd Planning Lead / Before final issue | Apply more conservative width/factor and activate upstream metering | Open |

### DIM-ICE challenge

| ID | Phase | Design | Information | Management | Expectation | Gap | Action owner | Status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DIME-01 | Arrival / degraded reroute | Two signed branches from west plaza | Advance route message, hub signage and live closure message | Stewarded split, CCTV monitoring and metering authority | Most guests initially prefer the visible north approach | Compliance and decision-point comprehension not field-tested | Guest Experience + Crowd Lead | Open |

### Independent review and close-out

| ID | Discipline | Reviewer | Scope | Finding | Response | Evidence | Status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| REV-01 | Independent crowd-model review | To appoint | Inputs, continuity, equations, route choice, degradation, controls and conclusions | Pending | Pending | Signed review record | Open |

## 12. Validation findings and action register

| Severity | Reference | Finding |
| --- | --- | --- |
| WARNING | GRP-01 | The provisional group buffer (9350) exceeds inventory (9000); CrowdRoute caps the incremental buffered allocation at known inventory. |
| WARNING | Demand | Configured capacity (12000) exceeds the total known group inventory (10800); capacity-stress attendance is capped at that known inventory unless additional authorized inventory is entered. |
| CRITICAL | N-01 | Node requires a valid Google Maps latitude and longitude. |
| CRITICAL | N-02 | Node requires a valid Google Maps latitude and longitude. |
| CRITICAL | N-03 | Node requires a valid Google Maps latitude and longitude. |
| CRITICAL | N-04 | Node requires a valid Google Maps latitude and longitude. |
| CRITICAL | G-N | Node requires a valid Google Maps latitude and longitude. |
| CRITICAL | G-S | Node requires a valid Google Maps latitude and longitude. |
| WARNING | SEG-01 | Walking geometry and distance have not been synchronized from Google Routes for the current node positions. |
| WARNING | SEG-02 | Walking geometry and distance have not been synchronized from Google Routes for the current node positions. |
| WARNING | SEG-03 | Walking geometry and distance have not been synchronized from Google Routes for the current node positions. |
| WARNING | SEG-04 | Walking geometry and distance have not been synchronized from Google Routes for the current node positions. |
| WARNING | SEG-05 | Walking geometry and distance have not been synchronized from Google Routes for the current node positions. |
| CRITICAL | RTE-N | Route contains 3 segment(s) without traversable Google walking geometry. Unrouted conceptual connectors cannot be issued as physical routes. |
| CRITICAL | RTE-S | Route contains 3 segment(s) without traversable Google walking geometry. Unrouted conceptual connectors cannot be issued as physical routes. |
| CRITICAL | Gate network | 2 controlled gates do not have an end-to-end Google-routed chain from a direct-walk transport origin: G-N (unlocated), G-S (unlocated). |
| WARNING | Geometry | Network geometry is conceptual; do not use schematic distance or position as surveyed fact. |

| ID | Action | Rationale | Owner / due | Evidence required | Contingency | Status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| ACT-01 | Replace illustrative geometry and route choice with controlled evidence | Current demonstration data are not suitable for operational issue | Project Manager / Before final model issue | Survey/GIS control, site walk, obstruction schedule, observed counts and route-choice basis | Retain draft/indicative status and apply conservative operating controls | Open |

## 13. Data handoff and reproducibility

The accompanying project JSON preserves the complete input state. The normalized route–destination–time CSV records demand by scenario, time, group and route. The normalized route–segment-use CSV records each route contribution to each segment, supporting reconciliation and downstream analysis without summing sequential legs as unique attendance.

Model version: CrowdRoute calculation model 1.0; schema crowdroute/v1. Generated from revision P01. A materially changed attendance, configuration, route, closure, geometry, control or operating plan requires re-run and re-approval.

## 14. Limitations and use conditions

- Not fit for structural design, statutory certification, detailed traffic engineering or individual-agent behavior prediction.
- Operational route-allocation screening, bottleneck identification and trigger design for the stated event basis.
- Route-choice and compliance inputs are behavioral assumptions unless supported by observation or validated survey evidence.
- Segment flow and density checks are deterministic screening calculations. They do not represent individual interaction, turbulence, stop–start waves, counterflow behavior or microscopic evacuation dynamics.
- Capacity is not treated as a universal constant. Effective performance depends on usable geometry, people, information, management, environment, upstream release and downstream acceptance.
- Closed or degraded segments require field-confirmed operational controls, accessible alternatives, communications and recovery criteria.
- Reported values must be read with the evidence register, open assurance items, validation findings and stated exclusions.

---

Prepared by Synthetic example; checked by No professional review performed; approved by No operational approval.  
This report is decision support for competent crowd-safety and event operations professionals. It is not a certificate of safety.
© 2026 THE CROWDSAFE GROUP, LLC. All rights reserved.


Copyright 2026 THE CROWDSAFE GROUP, LLC. All rights reserved.